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NURI YALCIN

The Monitor
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I'll buy iPhone if Google doesn't buy Apple

Fri Jan 12, 2007 8:52 AM EST
technology, google, apple, iphone, mac
By Nuri Yalcin

Live Poll

Is Apple in danger of being eaten up by Google?

View Results
  • 7468
    Yes
    17%
  • 7469
    No
    83%

VoteTotal Votes: 69

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On the Heels of the Consumer Electronics Show

Was it me or did anyone else feel an infinitesimal tense moment between Dr. Eric Schmidt and King Jobs?

When Jobs introduced Schmidt, and when the high priest of Google tangentially stroked the issue of cooperation between the two companies, my subliminal receptors were air-raid-sirening with "Alarm.. Alarm.. Alarm.. He means 'I can buy Apple any day I want.'" The camera momentarily panned to Jobs who looked as uncomfortable as a graduate student whose wunderkind project was being robbed by a fellow academician in broad daylight. Yes, there were smiles, but I felt terrible. (The metaphor sucks, but how can I bring a jean-wearing hopping-jumping middle-aged man and a former-SS- looking gray suit together in a metaphor?)

I believe that with the out-of-this-world acquisition of YouTube by Google, the grandmother of all search engines has become another Microsoft: Too large for my taste even to contemplate about it. Google remains my favorite search engine at a subconscious level: My hands reach to the Google box on Safari even when I want to order a cup of coffee. Yet, lured by a paid advertising banner, I've begun to use Ask.com for less junk and more relevance and I'm increasingly liking it although it still needs a conscious effort to remember that Ask.com exists. Moral: Google is powerful but its castle is built on soft ground.

Dr. Schmidt's board seat at Apple Inc. is of no concern to me. But being the behemoth his company is, I want Google to stay as far from Apple's innovation cycle as possible. I am happy with Apple being a rather niche brand and churning out the best and coolest personal computing in the world.

I like Google. Some of my best friends use Google. I just don't like the idea of Google having thoughts about where Apple should go from here.

I want my Apple.

The company that essentially pionneered graphical user interfaces.
The Apple that made the Classic.
The nerdy bunch that tried and failed at the Newton. (At the time I had sold the family silver and bought one.)
The bouncers who slept over part of the 1990s and then rebounded with the best Intel-powered notebooks we're using today.
The guys who gave us the iLife as well as the iPod.

Google's gigantic dimensions and aspirations worry me but that's not the only problem. I see Google as a fundamentally networking company. I want my computing and entertainment experience to be only partially networked. I don't want Apple to be strategically torn between visions and goals that cannot be expected to be in full sync.

Jobs' own keynote speech did nothing to allay my concerns either. By dropping the word "computer" from the name of the company and then showing numbers from the consumer electronics industry, he just frekaed me out. Apart from a casual reference to the success of the transition to the Intel line, I heard nothing on the the computer products.

Does Mr. Jobs really wish to become a Nokia? The road there is strewn with roadside bombs and there is a clear danger of ending up as a SonyEricsson. More importantly, it's so far away from where he is and where his true potentials could take him if he stuck wıth the vision of Apple Computer.

His first steps into the consumer electronics were far from being soothing for this worried loyalist.

iPhone is riddled with flaws as far as my personal needs are concerned. Battery life is the number one issue. I charge my BlackBerry once a week and it has never failed me. I'd be happy to charge my iPhone twice a week, but will even that suffice? I would not want to be left with iPhone driving from Vegas to LA or when weathering a snowstorm in Boulder.

Mr. Jobs also made a lot of fuss about the cool touch screen. It is a marvel. The moment I get hold of the unit, I'll stroke it with love just as I stroke my cat's head and my MacBook Pro's aluminum case. And Apple should be kissed in the forehead for disposing with the idea of the stylus in favor of the human finger. These are the kind of things that make Apple... well, Apple. Yet I wish they also gave us a simple screen and a simple physical numeric keypad at the back of the unit. It would have been a time-saving (or life-saving) feature during emergencies or when the battery is running low. My Nokia 9300i has that and it saved me lots of hassle many a day.

Like cool Apple Computer does not necessarily convert into cool consumer electronics, the leap from iPod to iPhone is not as direct and will not be as painless as Mr. Jobs would perhaps want us to believe.

I will buy iPhone the moment I can. I see many flaws with it, but I cannot do without the iPhone. I'm Apple from top to toe and it will be so cool to complement my MacBook Pro-based work environment and Mac Mini-based home entertainment system with the newest toy from Apple. (My old iPod would happily convert into an emergency boot disk.)

Apple can surely grow and earn more money. It has a choice to do it in the way it has done so far or to take a different course. If Apple becomes just another consumer electronics company, I wonder what would make me buy an Apple instead of a Vaio.

Mountains of cash and gigantic size are not necessarily what Apple should want to achieve. Just look at Microsoft to see what I mean.

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  • Public Discussion (29)
S.Habib

I'm afraid of the whole technology thing. Where's it headed? What will Jimbo Wales do with all the mammoth power of Wikipedia eventually? Are we going to see AT&T signs in an Orwellian world not in the very far future, hovering above us like the Big Brother? And Google, what else? From a banged-up server to a matrix-like network of servers all around the world. Then they bought one of the biggest networks of human beings on the net. you know, youtube. They have 2 of the 3 things needed to have immense power, over the net, over the people. they have the people, they have the means of connecting them. if they acquire Apple then they'll have everything needed to do whatever they want. but this comment has been diverted from it's actual course. I just want to ask a question: is it really a possibility? Google buying Apple?

Now that's probably the only thing that'll make me stay away from Apple products.

  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:22 AM EST
Nuri Yalcin

I feel similarly from time to time. It's possible that we're just reducing technology to the absurd. Everything is becoming so available, so affordable, so accessible.

  • 2 votes
Reply#2 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:26 AM EST
MasterNav

I enjoyed reading your concerns Nuri. Let's take a quick swag at some of those:

Mountains of cash and gigantic size are not necessarily what Apple should want to achieve.

Unlikely, since that is completely counter-cultural to Apple. Money yes, size no.

If Apple becomes just another consumer electronics company, I wonder what would make me buy an Apple instead of a Vaio.

All those things you listed above in your posting that you like about Apple should be sufficient I would think - given that you are on Apple and not Vaio now, right?

iPhone is riddled with flaws as far as my personal needs are concerned. Battery life is the number one issue. I charge my BlackBerry once a week and it has never failed me. I'd be happy to charge my iPhone twice a week, but will even that suffice? I would not want to be left with iPhone driving from Vegas to LA or when weathering a snowstorm in Boulder.

And yet the iPhone, with the notable exception of currently not supporting 3rd party apps addresses the BB market squarely - even though it is not yet even in production. Kind of like seeing a truly attractive woman and saying yeah, she beautiful but she's not a brain surgeon and she doesn't golf at 3 under par - without actually having spent time with her. Rather unfair wouldn't you say?

And finally as far as Google is concerned, Apple is highly capitalized and is probably very heavily poison-pilled to prevent that sort take-over from happening. Google culture and Apple culture are not necessarily compatible, but being able to work together is a good thing - building on each other's cachet. You all but ignored Yahoo in the process, why not fear their attempt to buy-out Apple as well? In either case they are not interested in owning a computer/electronics firm, it's not properly aligned with their model.

Thanks for your post!

  • 2 votes
Reply#3 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:26 AM EST
Nuri Yalcin

Great insight. Thanks. One comment and one question:

Comment: One of the real test of the BlackBerry is when you are roaming internationally. Every bit of compression helps and fixed-price plans are a must. When you use for example a Windows Mobile based phone with push e-mail, international roaming breaks your back. So the real test here for iPhone will be whether it is supported by a sensible, upside-limited data plan by Cingular for all the cases where you need to use the data lines of the cellular operator both inside and outside of your country.

Question: I would very much would like to know what sort of poison is there to fight against hostile takeover bids. That would be a relief for me to know that even Google would not find it easy to attack Apple.

  • 2 votes
#3.1 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:44 AM EST
MasterNav

Without diving into the immense tedium that is the reality of corporate life and strategy, many companies provide critical triggers within their management compensation plans that provide for thoroughly distasteful and debilitating compensation packages for their exectuives and senior management in the event of an hostile takeover event. There are other methodologies that can be used to stave off hostile bids - but significant capitalization and stock availability controls work against this as well.

  • 1 vote
#3.2 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:30 PM EST
Reply
crazytrain

Thanks for tipping me Nuri. I'm logging in to buy as much Apple stock as I can. I do hope Google buys Apple.

  • 4 votes
Reply#4 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:39 AM EST
S.Habib

Realistic approach to the subject.

  • 2 votes
#4.1 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:40 PM EST
Reply
Killfile

Apple is safe from Google. Anti-trust ladies and gents. If Google wants to get into the hardware business they're going to have to do it the old fashioned way. Given their size and profile I'd be amazed if the SEC let merger go through.

  • 3 votes
Reply#5 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:16 AM EST
FDBryant3

I'm not sure I see where the SEC would object. Currently in the OS space you have Microsoft, Apple, and Linux. In the music marketplace you have Apple, Microsoft, and a bunch of others. In the search space you have Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, and a bunch of others. How would Google buying Apple change this dynamic except that Google would dominate in two of those business and perhaps be in a stronger position to challenge Microsoft in the OS space. Ultimately, it does little to affect consumer choice.

If we were looking at MS buying Apple I doubt it would happen as that would give MS a almost true monopoly in the OS space as well as the music marketplace. I don't see the same problems though with Google buying Apple.

  • 4 votes
#5.1 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:10 PM EST
Nuri Yalcin

I tend to agree. If sheer size were to be a problem per se, Google would not be allowed to buy groceries let alone companies.

  • 1 vote
#5.2 - Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:29 AM EST
Reply
firsty

i've noticed recently that google and apple do indeed seem to be headed in similar directions.

the most immediate thing that i'd like apple and google to do is connect the google calendar with ical. ical sucks, but it has great potential, and would be wonderful if it were a window to google's calendar rather than this proprietary half-wit of an application that only really works with itself.

i dont see google doing anything with apple, tho. google's business plan seems to be content management. searching for and within content, viewing content in different forms, sharing content, advertising content, etc. apple is a product-driven operation.

google's growth in 2006 was interesting, to say the least. i'm slightly encouraged by what seems to be google sort of trying to step back from the unchallenged and reckless growth it's being pulled towards. it's made changes to how it presents its search results. its acquisition of jotspot seems to be headed to its first update (integration with google docs and calendar is my expectation). they were getting evil, or at least knocking on evil's door, but i think they've checked themselves and are trying to do the right thing.

i didnt watch the keynote address, but i trust your reaction RE body language, etc. that is worrisome. but lets remember that apple embraced yahoo's email, not gmail, when promoting that feature of the iphone. something to consider.

  • 2 votes
Reply#6 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:28 AM EST
Nuri Yalcin

I welcome all sorts of cooperation too. And it was a welcome move to include Yahoo in the e-mail process. What I'm worried about is -whether there's a merger or not- Apple avoiding being Apple in the name of keeping Google satisfied.

  • 3 votes
#6.1 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:42 AM EST
gecko85

Google Calendar works great with iCal...sort of. I have several calendars in Google Calendar that I share with other people (some I simply subscribe to the feeds for various purposes...), and I subscribe to these GCal's in iCal. They're read-only in iCal, but that's fine...the only reason I subscribe to them is so they sync with my Treo along with my (personal) iCal calendars. Now, if it were possible to *write* to a GCal from within iCal, that would be ideal. But this isn't such a bad system...

  • 1 vote
#6.2 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 3:52 PM EST
Dr Juice

Spanning Sync promises to do just that. It's currently in private beta, but it should move into public beta soon, hopefully before the month is over.

In the meantime, I'm content using SMS to add events to GCal, in fact I wish Apple would add that to iCal. I'm wondering if you'll be able to sync contacts, events, and bookmarks from iPhone to your computer.

I doubt Apple or Google would want a takeover. In fact I think Schmidt has less say on the board than you give him credit for. Google I'm sure could have whipped up an IMAP GMail, but instead Apple is using Yahoo!

  • 1 vote
#6.3 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:13 PM EST
Nuri Yalcin

I guess that would be the top of my wish list from the duo of Jobs and Schmidt: Develop a system of calendar, notes and to do apps that will work on the desktop when there is no network connection, and sync with an online server there is one.

  • 1 vote
#6.4 - Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:31 AM EST
Reply
Nuri Yalcin

And see this from NYT.

You don't want your phone to be an open platform,' he said. 'You need it to work when you need it to work. Cingular doesn't want to see their West Coast network go down because some application messed up.'

That's when the bite on the Apple no longer looks sweet. He is already trying to please Cingular. Imagine how he views the need to please Google.

  • 2 votes
Reply#7 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:49 AM EST
firsty

true, but phone service details are different than content management in general. apple's biggest problem with their new phone will be the simple fact that it's not an apple phone service. it's at&t/cingular, which has its own set of limitations. phone service is a mess. apple is brave to put its ipod success up against the nonsense of cell phone restrictions. so i dont necessarily see a direct correlation between satisfying cingular and satisfying google.

apple's biggest problem with google right now is that not all of google's online applications support safari. google had been getting cozy with mozilla, but now the firefox team (based on some recent blog news, which to some extent was seeded at newsvine) seems to be cooling on google in general.

i'm relatively confident that apple will continue its general attitude that it can manage its products within the world of offline and online tools to its own desires. they seem to control things in a very balanced way. they piss off the hardcore users (itunes dependency is a good example), but they seem to make legally-just decisions about their approaches, and they are open enough to encourage most end-users, even beyond the average person.

i think your points are valid, completely. but i also think that by your saying these things, that demonstrates, in part, the growing attitude towards google on the part of the users and businesses, and goes to show that it's increasingly unlikely that google makes further significant steps to take over the world, which seemed to be happening as recently as this past fall/summer, when they acquired youtube and jotspot and writely, etc. personally, i think theyve made most of the moves theyre going to make in that part of the business already, and in 07-08, theyll be working more to get their services a bit more easy to use, more integrated, and more cost-effective — their moves into print and radio advertising, as a means to support their software and online apps work, to me, point in that direction.

of course, i could be completely wrong. i'm an apple guy thru and thru, as well. i probably cant afford to buy the iphone when it first comes out, but my cell phone is already cingular, so many if i write enough rich articles at newsvine over the next year or so, i can get into the iphone at its 2nd generation, which should be a bit cheaper and fuller-featured.

:)

  • 2 votes
#7.1 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:18 PM EST
Nuri Yalcin

It was amazing for me that apart from a couple of odd comments, the anti-Google air in my piece seemed to be shared by most whether explicitly or implicitly. I feel it's a bit like what we have in politics. I normally would want my party to win. But for the sake of democracy's checks and balances, I would not want them to win such a majority that will make it all too easy for them to impose their will on the populace too easily.

  • 2 votes
#7.2 - Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:36 AM EST
firsty

all very true. i work with google docs, google calendar, orkut, google reader, gmail, google notebook. i was thrilled when google picked up my online docs tool, writely, and even more thrilled when they bought out jotspot, because i already had an account there, and next week they seem to be rolling out an update. if i could use picasa on my pre-tiger mac, i'd be using it.

but i dont want them to get to be too much. i'm paying close attention to zoho, which seems to be building a suite full of google competition.

competition is very, very good.

  • 1 vote
#7.3 - Sat Jan 13, 2007 12:36 PM EST
Reply
Faruk Ates

Apart from a casual reference to the success of the transition to the Intel line, I heard nothing on the the computer products.

That's because he left everything except the AppleTV out of the Keynote address, to focus entirely on the iPhone. This way, the only thing the media is talking about is the iPhone (with casual mention of the AppleTV).

No new iLife, no new iWork, no holiday quarter results, nothing. Give it some time, and new stuff will be announced.

Meanwhile, don't worry about Google buying Apple. There's no benefit to that (both brands are way strong and unique, a buy/merger would dilute both) and I know Jobs would never sell his company.

  • 3 votes
Reply#8 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:43 PM EST
Nuri Yalcin

I know Jobs would never sell his company.

Certainly my hope... On a personal level, though, a point might well come when Jobs says "I've pulled enough revolutions; let me retire to my peaceful corner." Today is not unlikely to be the Apex of his career. He has achieved so many coups in the recent years that I believe it's just not practical for him to be able to sustain this trend.

  • 3 votes
#8.1 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:02 PM EST
Faruk Ates

And you think he'll retire and just let someone else sell it all off?

I think Jobs is the kind of guy who, even after he retires, will play an integral role in the company's goings-on.

  • 1 vote
#8.2 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:10 PM EST
FDBryant3

Actually I was just reading something that has give rise to the thought of Jobs retiring. Over the past year it has been observed that Jobs seems tired, worn out, and not the Jobs of old. It could be maybe he is getting to retire (although like Bill Gates he'll probably do it over the course of a couple of years and even then remain on the board or something). If that is the case Steve is almost certainly going to be looking for someone to take over the company and carry forth his vision - cause the last time he was separated from the company, it almost killed Apple. Under that circumstance he might be looking at or considering Google as a buyer since in a lot of ways I think Google and Apple are both very similar in corporate philosophy.

  • 1 vote
#8.3 - Sat Jan 13, 2007 1:45 PM EST
Dr Juice

Jobs would pick a successor to take his place at Apple though, not sell the company out right.

And Google probably wouldn't know what to do with a hardware company like Apple.

    #8.4 - Sat Jan 13, 2007 2:12 PM EST
    Reply
    MasterNav

    One other thought: everyone one assumes that the Google is an online search and services beneficent provider of these services. This is only a surface scratch. Dig deeper and you will find a well-heeled advertising-driven organization that is the real model for what they are doing. The services provide the inroad into the user base that drives advertising revenue for Google which is where it gains its most significant source of capital. This is its success.

    As for the comment that Apple is trying to placate Cingular with its tight controls and playing to their whims, you have not obviously watched Mr. Jobs in action much. Any former partner will tell you that a partnership with Apple is very much like having a tiger by the tail. Watch the next year or so as things develop, or better go back and study previous partnerships. Don't assume that Apple is not aggressive in its stance with it's partners - no other phone maker has been successful in driving development within a carrier system. Same for Google and Yahoo. Apple is not a comfortable nor placatory partner and will always act in its own best interest. But people assume because it is small, certainly smaller than Microsoft for example that they do not have the right to be aggressive. Microsoft is allowed because, as once noted in a fantasy story, "...well of course the giant stepped on him! He is a giant after all and can't be bothered with people who insist on getting underfoot!"

    • 1 vote
    Reply#9 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:43 PM EST
    FDBryant3

    I don't think Google will buy Apple - your article did prompt a much more in-depth reply which I turned into my own article: Will Google buy OSX from Apple?

    • 2 votes
    Reply#10 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:01 PM EST
    chill

    interesting article.

    True, as Google gets huge, one worries that it will lose its nimbleness. It seems an ever repeating cycle. Like Yahoo, or Microsoft before that.

    But have faith, web innovation is becoming truly inexpensive, thus there should always be new Googles or at least new great ideas on the horizon.

    • 2 votes
    Reply#11 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:32 PM EST
    tamgo

    I understand your concern, I agree with you that one of the things that help apple remain the cool, niche company it is is precisely the fact that they have remained small.

    I would recommend you look at two things:

    • First of all, I don't think it's Mr. Jobs wish to keep Apple as a small niche company anymore. He's trying to make it a mainstream consumer electronic shop. And he doesn't need any help from google in order to do it. Look at it's latest announced products: the Apple TV and the IPhone (or whatever it will be called after the suit). Of course, we can't leave the IPod out of this mix. While there has been strong innovation in the traditional computing side of business, I don't think this will have a less important role in the revenue stream of the company in years to come
    • Second, it's a big, big leap for google to buy apple. At the moment I post this comment, Apple's market cap was 80 billion. Google's was 153 billion. Let's assume they are able to liquidate half of their net worth and invest it in Apple, would they? I see it very unlikely
    • 2 votes
    Reply#12 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:01 PM EST
    Nuri Yalcin

    Good and factual background. Thanks.

    • 1 vote
    Reply#13 - Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:25 PM EST
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